 "Tuvalu Inaba-4" by INABA Tomoaki is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0. In late 2023, Australia and Tuvalu signed a bilateral treaty establishing the Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union. This treaty establishes a special visa for Tuvaluans to migrate to Australia in response to the increasing impacts of climate change on their country. This is a historic moment as it marks the first-ever climate visa program in the world. Due to the high volume of applications, this could spark a major Tuvaluan migration to Australia and reignite a contentious immigration debate within Australia. What is Happening in Tuvalu? Tuvalu has been one of the most vocal critics of the international response to climate change for good reason. Tuvalu consists of many small, low-lying islands that are at risk of sinking into the ocean due to rising sea levels, especially the capital of Funafuti. Even if some islands aren’t fully submerged, the remaining population will have to contend with the loss of fisheries, livelihoods, clean drinking water, biodiversity, and experience more frequent extreme weather events. In a case before the International Court of Justice, Tuvalu demanded that more action be taken to address climate change on the principles of statehood, self-determination, and territorial integrity. Armed with the knowledge that much of Tuvalu will be underwater by 2050 at current rates, Tuvalu argued that it faced an existential threat. According to Laingane Talia, Tuvalu’s attorney-general, “there is unsurprisingly considerable consensus across participants that climate change is impeding the right to self-determination.” In late July, the ICJ ruled in favor of Tuvalu and other nations facing the devastating effects of climate change, stating that wealthy nations have to either comply with international law to limit climate change or risk being forced to pay compensation. Despite the ruling, climate change persists, and Tuvalu is still under threat. Thus, many Tuvaluans have been eager to use the Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union as a way to escape the rising sea. Within one month of the visa lottery opening, 4,052 people, or over ⅓ of the population of Tuvalu, have entered. This is an unprecedented number of people attempting to leave a country so quickly, which will have massive implications for both Tuvalu and Australia. The Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Labor government advanced the Australia–Tuvalu Falepili Union treaty in 2023 as part of its broader agenda to address climate change and strengthen national security, important pillars of Albanese’s electoral platform. It is critical to note that Australia’s parliament did not vote on this union, which was pushed through by the head of government. This deal may seem one-sided in favor of Tuvalu, especially with the generous immigration policies, but Australia gets several critical benefits from this union: international prestige via humanitarian efforts, closer economic ties with the nation, and stronger military influence in the Pacific, as seen by an AUD 15 million investment into a “National Security Coordination Center in Tuvalu.” Australia will accept 280 people from Tuvalu each year under the visa program. For a country as small as Tuvalu, that is equivalent to the United States losing the combined populations of the states of Washington and Wyoming annually to emigration. This runs the risk of a massive brain and labor drain, and although both nations have agreed to work towards limiting the exodus, details on the implementation of safeguards are limited. Besides the existential rising sea levels, another driver for this mass emigration is the very generous benefits the visa provides, which include freedom of travel in the country, subsidized healthcare, childcare subsidies, and more. There are a few interesting components to the visa. Applicants must be 18 or older, be citizens of Tuvalu, and have a grandparent or parent born in Tuvalu (or be born in Tuvalu themselves). Furthermore, they must meet certain health requirements that strikingly don’t exclude people with disabilities or special needs. Applicants do not need to demonstrate their risk from climate change, which could allow for an easier application process. Relating to foreign policy, there is no specific mention of Tuvalu in the visa, as it is a type of Subclass 192 Visa, which is a visa specifically for all Pacific Island countries and Timor-Leste. This means it could be offered to other Pacific Islands in the future, which is significant for immigration policy. If expanded to other Pacific Island nations, larger countries like Vanuatu and the Marshall Islands could also push to be included in the visa. The reason the Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union is so historic is that it will be the first-ever climate visa program implemented globally. Therefore, many countries that take in large amounts of migrants (such as the US, EU, and UK) will be watching keenly to see the results. What makes this different from previous immigration legislation is the ability to return Tuvalian immigrants. In debates over Afghan, Syrian, or Latin American immigrants, it was always possible to return them to their home or a nearby country, as the land that they once lived on would still physically be there. However, Tuvalu’s situation differs in that there may not be any physical land left to return to with the rising sea level. This would make deportations and repatriations much more challenging to support, given that their nation may no longer exist. Impacts on Australia and the Immigration Debate Australia has had a tumultuous history of immigration policies regarding Pacific nations, starting with the Pacific Island Labourers Act of 1901, which deported over 4,000 Pacific Islanders from Australia amid concerns that they would compete against white workers. Today, they face similar disputes over their current immigration policies, with the broader implications of Pacific Island immigration that the Union presents could become a point of contention in future election cycles. Groups against immigration, such as the far-right Pauline Hanson's One Nation party, focus on two factors: the cost of living and the rent crisis. Rents in Australia are rising rapidly, reaching up to 9% inflation in some cities, largely due to a housing shortage. The rent spike is fueling high inflation in Australia, which is driving up the cost of living, much to the disdain of many Australians. The argument goes that, based on supply-and-demand economics, there is already a fixed supply of housing, and the high amounts of immigrants being taken in per year are increasing demand, pushing rents up and increasing inflation. Therefore, the Union and other immigration programs are viewed as hurting Australia’s economy by these groups. Conversely, the pro-immigration argument—championed by the Labor Party, which currently holds a parliamentary majority and the premiership—emphasizes addressing labor shortages and sustaining economic growth. Australia still needs to fill gaps in its healthcare, technology, and construction sectors. Based on a study in Germany, immigrants, given the necessary resources (as they most likely will be under the Union), boost economic growth and GDP. This economic growth is contingent on the immigrants being just as educated as Australians, and Tuvalu is not too far behind Australia in schooling and has a comparable literacy rate. The argument is that immigrants will boost Australia’s GDP and make the economy stronger and more resilient by filling in the aforementioned gaps. Although the Labour Party has control over parliament, the underlying currents of anti-immigration sentiment are growing in Australia, as was seen in the large-scale anti-immigration protests this past September. A poll by the Lowy Institute has seen a rise in Australians who think immigration rates are too high over the past six years. Pressure from public opinion will be important in the long-term success of the Union. If a hardline anti-immigration government comes to power, it could spell the end of the visa program entirely. Potential Long-Term Impacts Overall, the Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union is going to set a new direction for immigration. Climate visas have frequently been proposed by experts as a way to help those impacted by climate change find refuge, but have not been implemented until now. Since the Union is the first of its kind, many other countries facing large numbers of climate migrants will be watching closely. Its long-term success or failure will determine whether other nations introduce similar visa programs in the future. Tuvalu desperately needs this visa program to work for its survival, but its success depends on Australia’s public opinion and the ability of migrants to show that they boost, rather than hinder, the economy. Henry Dirckx is a second-year undergraduate at the University of Washington studying environmental science.
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